Bet Belmont at the Big A (2024)

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A short field for the Dwyer (G3) and while I think each horses has flaws, I ultimately landed on Chad Brown’s #3 Domestic Product (6/5). The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner was a popular “dark horse” pick by some in the Kentucky Derby (G1), but those dreams were lost at the break when he got pinched back and simply did not get a particularly good trip. The son of Practical Joke prefers to come from off the pace but had a curious trip last time out in the Pegasus at Monmouth Park where jockey Flavien Prat had him up on the lead while stacked four wide the whole way around the track. It was a less-than-ideal trip. Despite sitting right on top of strong fractions, he still finished second to runaway winner Tuscan Sky. He was still 4+ lengths better than #2 Hades (7/2) that day and now cuts back and should sit more comfortably off the early leaders. Look for Prat to keep #1 Bilal (8/5) and Hades in his sights, but with such a short field he should not have that much ground to make up turning for home. Finally, while he won going two turns in the past, I believe Practical Joke offspring are best going around one turn and I think we will see the best version of this horse on Saturday. I am not a believer in Bilal as he is not the same horse without Lasix, and he does not appear to want any part of a mile. Honestly, you could make a case for #4 Save the Trees (4/1) as a horse coming out of a very productive debut maiden victory, which saw four horses win next time out. He needs to show he can stretch out to a mile, and this is a step up in class, but he can really make up ground despite often running against track bias. However, #2 Hades (7/2) might be a worthy second choice here as trainer Joe Orseno is taking the blinkers off after a distant third-place finish in the Pegasus Stakes last time out at Monmouth Park. Notice the horse did his best running without blinkers early in his career and Paco Lopez comes up for the mount. The horse seems to have come out of the Pegasus in good order and should be pressing Bilal for the early pace. He can get the distance but might be another one who improves around one turn while providing value as a potential upset pick.

It is uncommon to see six-year-old horses rediscover their form, but #3 Prevalence (5/2) appears to have done just that for trainer Brendan Walsh. The son of Medaglia d’Oro won the Commonwealth (G3) as a four-year-old back in 2022, but his form fell off quite a bit after that race. Walsh tried him on the turf and synthetic during that time, but he appears to have gotten back to his old ways on the dirt over his last few starts. The last three dirt sprints have included a win and two seconds against quality competition. He lost the Maryland Sprint (G3) to Straight No Chaser last May and then won a $100,000 allowance optional claiming race against multiple stakes winner Surveillance as well as stakes winner Night Time. Last time out he finished second to Super Chow over a muddy track in the Maryland Sprint (G3) but is trending in the right direction. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. stays aboard and has been his jockey in all three of these previous dirt sprint efforts. From a race standpoint, he has good early speed, but can track off the pace effectively, so expect Ortiz Jr. to have him involved early, but he does not need to get to the front. #1 Everso Mischievous (5/2) make a ton of sense in this spot in his second start back from a brief layoff. Outside his effort in the Cigar Mile (G2), where things did not go his way early, he has never run a bad race having finished in the exacta in his other seven career efforts with five wins. The Brad Cox trainee draws the inside rail and jockey Tyler Gaffalione stays aboard, which is a positive as he’s ridden him to victory the only other two times he has been in the irons. Like Prevalence, he does not need the lead, but expects Gaffalione to be aggressive from the rail to ensure a comfortable trip. The son of Into Mischief is undefeated at Saturday’s seven-furlong distance and if he can run back to his effort in the Forty Niner (G2) from last October then he is a very legitimate win contender. My only question is whether you will really get 5/2 on him. If you can, run to the windows. I have a feeling he is going to get bet down to favoritism come post time, but that might still be a good bet. Perhaps no horse tries harder in races than #2 Ninetyprcentmaddie (6/1) as the Pennsylvania-bred has finished second the last four times out including the last two against graded stakes company. He was a distance second to Baby Yoda in the True North (G2) on a day where nobody was catching that horse and just missed out on nabbing Joey Freshwater in the Runhappy (G3) two back. He comes from off the pace, which might be more of a challenge in a short field, but you know he will come running at the end and does well at the seven furlongs. Finally, #5 Mullikin (2/1) is your morning line favorite for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, but this horse has some questions to answer. Or, perhaps Brisset is the one who needs to answer them as over the last five years his horses have been a combined 1-44 when switching off Lasix against stakes company. Not exactly the sort of stat that gives you confidence betting on a horse taking his first crack against graded stakes company. He ran well without Lasix in the Maxfield Stakes held at Ellis Park last year as he finished second to Ryvit. He is coming off consecutive wins by a combined nine lengths against allowance and optional claiming company in Kentucky. The Beyer Speed Figures put him at the top of the field, but I need to see him prove it before wagering on him at a short price.

I wrote above about being hesitant to back Charlie Appleby horses at a short price, but on rare occasions they can present good value, which is what drew me to #8 Cinderella’s Dream (9/2). The filly started her career a perfect 4-4 winning in Great Britain and the UAE, which included a resounding score in the Jumeirah 1000 Guineas in Meydan. She stepped up against much tougher foes in her last race at Newmarket in the Qipco 1000 Guineas and finished seventh in a field of 16. She finished behind Porta Fortuna who went on to win the Coronation Cup (G1) during Royal Ascot. Even the third-place finisher from the Qipco 1000 Guineas, Ramatuelle, came back to run third again at the Coronation Cup (G1). Now Cinderella’s Dream makes her first start in North America after getting in some local works in New York the last few weeks. Jockey William Buick is back aboard and has navigated her to three victories. Expect her to sit mid-pack while trying to save some ground from the further outside post position. She looks dangerous at a price. Speaking of dangerous, trainer Cherie DeVaux has continued her ascension in the sport over the last couple of years and #7 She Feels Pretty (2/1) could be yet another superstar for her. She won the Natalma (G1) last year for DeVaux’s first Grade 1 victory as a trainer and ran a very close third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) where she was less than a head behind the aforementioned Porta Fortuna. Despite coming back from a six-month layoff last time out, she easily crushed the competition in the Hilltop Stakes at Pimlico on the Black-Eyed Susan Day undercard. She took a nice step forward in terms of Beyer Speed Figures (90) and could move forward again. The daughter of Karakontie appears to like some give in the ground but has run well over firm turf as well. She will be coming from off the pace, but jockey John Velazquez has been aboard the last three times out and knows exactly when to push the button with her. Expecting a big effort and a worthy favorite. Trainer Mike Maker is known for getting his horses to go long on the turf and #1 Pin Up Betty (10/1) provides good value for a horse that appears to have finally gotten on her best surface. After repeatedly coming up short against maiden competition on the dirt and synthetic, Maker switched the daughter of Constitution over to the grass three starts ago and the results have been positive. She ran second her first time on the turf, but then had an easy win to break her maiden before immediately getting stepped up to run in the Regret (G3), which she won at 6/1 odds. She loses jockey Luis Saez as Jose Lezcano picks up the mount, but I love her trajectory as a horse that has discovered what she does best (going long on the turf) and has yet to run her best race. She could continue to move forward and if she does then she provides outstanding value in your vertical wagers. Another runner who will provide good value is #9 Sy B (15/1) as the other Cherie DeVaux entry who had some trouble last time out in the Wonder Again (G2) where she stumbled at the start. Despite the rough beginning, she closed strong to finish second behind #6 Segesta (6/1) and could have some more upside given the trip. Like Pin Up Betty, she perked up over the turf after starting her career on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. The daughter of English Channel has all the turf pedigree you need and while she loses jockey John Velazquez, Tyler Gaffalione is a very capable replacement. At a big price, she should come running late and be a horse you want to consider for your exactas and trifecta wagers. Plus, she does not need to improve much to be a legitimate upset candidate for the win.

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